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A customer tries on a gold necklace in Hanoi, Vietnam.

A customer tries on a gold necklace in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Societe Generale, a major European bank, has a note out asking whether 2013 will be the first year since 2000 that gold ends the year down, according to Business Insider. In it, they present the bullish and bearish argument in the simplest manner possible, it says.

Let’s take a look at the arguments that will decide the price of gold this year.

 

An employee looks at gold jewellery at a shop in Hanoi, Vietnam.

An employee looks at gold jewellery at a shop in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Equities stand at their lowest level since 20 years, relative to gold, making the latter less attractive.

 

An employee displays gold jewellery in Russia's Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk.

An employee displays gold jewellery in Russia's Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk.

The dollar could appreciate and interest rates may rise amid signs of a stronger economic recovery.

 

Women walk past the Emirates Diamonds shop at Gold and Diamond Park

Women walk past the Emirates Diamonds shop at Gold and Diamond Park

Inflation is still under control.

Women walk past the Emirates Diamonds shop at Gold and Diamond Park, a shopping mall specialised in gold and diamond retailing, in Dubai.

 

A woman displays a small gold coin next to Europe's largest gold

A woman displays a small gold coin next to Europe's largest gold

Currency wars and renewed monetary easing could push gold higher.

A woman displays a small gold coin next to Europe’s largest gold coin in a shop in Vienna, Austria.

 

Japanese ornamental 'hina' dolls, made of pure gold,

Japanese ornamental 'hina' dolls, made of pure gold,

Demand from emerging countries may increase.

Japanese ornamental ‘hina’ dolls, made of pure gold, is unveiled at the Ginza Tanaka store in Tokyo.

 

A woman is reflected on the window of a jewellery shop

A woman is reflected on the window of a jewellery shop

In the long run, gold may play a role in the transition to an international currency reserve system.

A woman is reflected on the window of a jewellery shop where gold bangles are on display in Istanbul, Turkey.

 

A store keeper arranges gold jewellery in Kathmandu.

A store keeper arranges gold jewellery in Kathmandu.

The most crucial question, really, is the interest rate one. If real interest rates in the US begin to normalise, gold will likely get crushed, as Goldman Sachs (and others) have pointed out lately, according to Business Insider.

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